12/99 ComputerUser
Internet
head: Interesting times
deck: Satisfaction with the Internet is on the decline.
By Don Fitzwater
There's an old Chinese curse that goes, "May you live in interesting times." I think it's safe to say that most Internet users probably understand all the ramifications of "interesting times" better than they probably wish they did.
This year saw the resurgence of Apple and IBM, the stumbles of Compaq and Microsoft, the ascent of Linux and the advent of so-called free PCs--just to name a few of the bigger news items. The past year also saw MCI suffer an 11-day network outage that cut off hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of users from the Internet. It also saw Internet auctions explode into prominence as well as the first tentative steps of the application services provider pioneers. And for seasoning, you can mix in the first signs that the Internet IPO craze is cooling off and that, perhaps more significant, the open-source movement being is taken seriously by business and the computer press.
Let's take a look at that last one first. Microsoft originally missed the importance of the Internet. Granted, it stopped on the proverbial dime and has made up time remarkably well, but the fact remains that it blew it on the vision thing. Microsoft has now missed the importance of the open-source movement, and this too may hurt.
As potential proof of this pending damage, it is important to note that business IT staffers are seeing Linux/UNIX delivering now what Microsoft keeps promising: stability, scalability, security and better suitability for the Internet. Throw in the fact that you aren't locked into a one-vendor solution, and open-source starts looking attractive to IT departments.
Another item that made the 1999 Internet year interesting was the overall decline in Internet satisfaction. The "World Wide Wait" has become more prominent. Events like MCI's high-profile network meltdown have occurred regularly on regional and smaller scales throughout the past year. Even with fledgling broadband links (xDSL and cable modems) from the consumer to the ISP, fundamental problems still slow down the Internet experience.
Oversubscribed ISPs, overloaded national attachment points and backbone routers, inefficient protocols and streaming media are overwhelming a transport medium originally designed for bursty machine-to-machine data transfers. Most performance enhancements trotted out lately are cosmetic (like caching) and don't address the infrastructure problems that continue to plague the Internet. With the growth rate of new users still increasing, things don't look to get much better in the near future. Some areas users have high-speed Internet access services and options, but most are still getting on via modem connections.
On a brighter note, we see the first elements of what I think will be a significant new form of Internet connectivity in Apple's wireless networking AirPort technology. I know that I'm looking forward to losing the cord and being able to experience online access wherever I am.
I think free-PC promotions will shrivel once consumers see the real hidden (and not-so-hidden) costs in them. Free PCs have a long way to go yet before they prove themselves a viable market force.
Slightly more viable are deals for cheap PCs. Apple just announced a deal that allows consumers to buy an iMac for $599 if they buy three years of Internet access from CompuServe. There are many other such manufacturer/ISP bundling offers out there, but the jury is still out on whether consumers will feel comfortable locked into a particular ISP for three years at so-so rates just to save a few hundred dollars on a machine.
So what about the upcoming year? I actually expect it to be a lot like this past year. I see Linux and the open-source movement continuing their gains on mind share and market share. I see Apple and IBM both continuing the roll they are on (Apple with its march toward becoming a major player again in the PC marketplace, and IBM with its remarkable focus on ecommerce hardware, software and support.) And I hope to see reality insert its face into the world of Internet stocks. Maybe the year 2000 will see Internet stocks held to the same measures of success that we use for other, non-Internet stocks.
