The humble cell phone ain't what it used to be--nor will it long be what
it is now. Phones are getting smarter and more versatile, even as they
become dirt-cheap. Sony Ericsson's Cherie Gary talked recently about
what's coming up for the gadget that more and more people can't live
without.
At this point, I would think that most everyone who wants a cell phone
has one, yet phone sales are at all-time highs. Why are phone
enhancements, some seemingly superficial, prompting so many people to
upgrade?
Today's handsets are becoming more feature-packed and user-friendly than
most of us could have imagined just a few years ago. I know that it's a
cliché to say that the best is yet to come, but in wireless, that's
accurate.
A number of trends contribute to a strong replacement market. Carriers
are rolling out different promotions and offers to encourage customers
to upgrade their handsets, try out new multimedia messaging services and
get hooked on content downloads.
Still, color screens and camera phones remain another reason consumers
choose to upgrade. Even as camera phones become more ubiquitous, newer
models are ramping up the quality of the photos they take.
And just as the color screen was an eye-popping improvement to the
mobile handset a few years ago, 3-D capability is expected to prompt
handset upgrades as mobile gaming usage increases.
The market share for smart phones increased by almost half this year.
Will they make PDAs a thing of the past, or will there still be a place
for those as well?
Like most, we think standalone PDAs without connectivity options are on
the wane, because PDA functionality is increasingly being incorporated
into a host of smart phones. According to In-Stat/MDR, about 170 million
smart phones have been sold globally. But beyond smart phones, even the
moderate segment of Sony Ericsson cell phones today have some PDA
functionality.
A number of smart phones, including Sony Ericsson's, use the Symbian
operating system. Could you explain what that is and what makes it so
attractive to phone makers?
Symbian is a software licensing company that develops and supplies the
advanced, open, standard operating system for data-enabled mobile
phones.
What makes it so attractive is that it was designed specifically for the
mobile world. Mobile phone manufacturers, network operators, and
software developers are assured that they're working with an
industry-standard, open operating system that allows customization and
is focused on the mass market driving the wireless community.
Sony Ericsson has put a lot into display technologies for its phones and
other handheld devices, such as organic light-emitting diode
initiatives. Why the focus on display quality?
Now that camera phones are becoming common, consumers are demanding
better quality for their graphics. Additionally, a wide range of new
content is now available on the market. Take gaming--by the end of the
year Sony Ericsson will offer more than 30 3-D games on our mobile
phones.
We're now reading about phones in the works that will provide HDTV
reception. What are some other futuristic features we can look forward
to in the next year or two?
In an age in which every new wireless technology seems to suffer from
too much hype, hearing something referred to as "the most important"
wireless technology of the year--like Wi-Fi and HDTV reception--raises
some red flags. We can't discuss future products, but we are watching
technologies like Wi-Fi very closely, and when the market is ready, we
will bring a device to market. Today Wi-Fi drains the battery very
quickly, so it's not ready for the consumer mass market. In terms of
real-time TV being broadcast on mobile phones, the chips that will be
required for that are not available yet, so we anticipate it may be 2007
or later before you start seeing true TV in phones.
As for the future, imaging is still an exciting area. While most
manufacturers, including Sony Ericsson, are launching megapixel cameras
now, higher-quality photos mean more memory is needed to store the
photos. If you start taking photos with a 3-megapixel camera phone for
example, you could quickly discover you'll run out of memory on the
handset.
The same issue arises as more data of any kind is kept on mobile phones,
especially smart phones that replace PDAs, digital music players and
small computers. Phones will be used to store company documents, music
files, video, photos, and charts, among other things.
Storing large amounts of data creates a problem for a mobile phone, even
though its onboard memory is ever-expanding. Enter the flash memory
card, the plug-in cards associated with digital cameras and other
memory-intensive electronic devices. We are already using external
memory today in the P910 and S710.
Games and ring tones were the hot mobile content of 2004. What will
phone users be downloading next year?
3-D gaming will be big next year. IDC recently predicted that by 2006
the wireless gaming sector will generate $1 billion in revenue in the
United States alone. 3-D gaming is a really exciting area, and we
continue to focus resources on both gaming and other forms of
entertainment on mobile phones.
What will happen with phone price points in 2005? Will the more
bare-bones models go down in price while early adopters chase the more
feature-rich models?
Sony Ericsson will continue to offer a full product portfolio of
handsets and PC cards that meet all segments of the market. Different
from the global marketplace, U.S. carriers are among the few in the
world that still subsidize handsets, so most consumers never see the
"true" price of their mobile phone. At the same time, operators continue
to offer new pricing plans to entice customers to chat it up. Some have
discounted international rates, while others are trying to make
wireless/wireline bundles more attractive, and often a phone is part of
the deal.
What's next from a broader development perspective? Further refinements
to existing hardware, or whole new types of phones?
In 2005, we anticipate the arrival of Edge release 4. This technology is
a software upgrade for most Edge networks, as well as for devices such
as the Sony Ericsson Z500a which is a Class 10 device, and the new S710,
a "jackknife" concept. The biggest benefit of release 4 is lower
latency, which makes Edge work better with VPNs as well as multiplayer
games. That improvement will make Edge attractive to more business
users.
Meanwhile, you can expect a wider rollout of the universal mobile
telecommunications system (UMTS). It's already available on 50 networks
in 19 countries, including the United States. And in 2006, some carriers
plan to launch high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA), which lets
users download data at average rates between 550 kilobits per second and
1.1Mbps, with peaks of up to 14.4Mbps.
Phones have to keep up with these network upgrades, so you can look
forward to much more powerful devices in the future.