Not long ago, there were a couple of computer industry stories that
received some noticeable coverage:
-- Dec. 7, 2004: IBM quitting PC hardware business, sells out to Lenovo.
-- Jan. 11, 2005: Apple introduces the Mac mini.
One small compensation for an old digital dog like me is scraps of
memory that go back in years. In this case, to a time around 1980 when
an IBM skunkworks in Boca Raton, Fla., developed an uncharacteristic
product called the IBM PC. (The product also boosted the fortunes of a
tiny operating system company called Microsoft.) Suddenly, Apple
Computer, which was far ahead in the personal computer business, had
formidable competition. For a few years, there was an energetic tussle
that affected the whole world.
That was then. You know what? If there is the equivalent of tectonic
plates in technology, they shifted then and they may be shifting now.
It was not much of a surprise that IBM decided to quit the PC hardware
market. IBM grumbled about the sales of its personal computer hardware
(desktop and portables) for some time. The figures thrown out seem to
indicate that IBM lost millions in that business during the period. More
importantly, IBM is going through one of its corporate identity
reinventions, moving toward software and services and away from
commodity markets such as PC hardware. The reality was that long ago IBM
outsourced most of its PC manufacturing, much of it to China. Other than
symbolic or historical reverberations, which do not penetrate far in
hard-nosed corporate thinking, getting out of the PC hardware business
was a sound strategic move. Most analysts applauded it.
What was something of a surprise was selling the business (for $1.75
billion) to a Chinese company, Lenovo Corporation based in Beijing. When
the deal is consummated early in 2005, ownership of Lenovo will be 46
percent Chinese government, 35 percent public investors, and 19 percent
IBM.
Luckily (if it is luck) for IBM, the demagogues right and left did not
find it profitable to put spin on this story. Otherwise, the opportunity
for hyping the threat of the red (or yellow) menace was there for the
making. The story was reported more or less as a straight business or
financial matter. I'm glad this was generally the case, but sometimes
it's important to note what doesn't happen.
Lenovo, formerly branded as Legend, is China's largest PC manufacturer
with around $3 billion in sales, mostly in China. It now takes on IBM's
PC and ThinkPad logos, distribution to 150 countries, and $9 billion in
sales. The putative $12 billion company is automatically a player in
global competition. Ah so, but the question is can a corporation
entangled in China's vast state bureaucracy successfully compete at the
international level? The Chinese have built up considerable skill in
manufacturing and logistics, but can they take the pulse of the world
market and translate it into designs and effective merchandising?
One of the most interesting aspects of the IBM-Lenovo deal (and there
are many) is that Lenovo is moving its headquarters to Armonk, New York
(headquarters of IBM). Why? Because the company is going to be run by a
team of Chinese and former IBM executives. Some Chinese executives of
Lenovo, many of whom are taking title reductions, will shuttle between
Beijing and the U.S. Several thousand IBM employees will shift to
Lenovo. This is an enormous experiment in administrative cultures. It is
also picture-book globalization if there ever was.
The Chinese are learning. They are eager to learn, even to the point of
personally stepping back to let others do a better job. Yet the new
chairman of Lenovo, Yang Yuanqing, can say, "Lenovo of China is going to
be Lenovo of the world. We won't be satisfied with the number three
position. We will formally challenge the other two major competitors in
the global PC market. [Dell, HP]" This does sound like American hubris.
Whether Lenovo can live up to the words is certainly questionable and
worth watching. To me it sounds like the center of gravity in the
computer industry is shifting.
There are other shifts. Over the years, Apple Computer stood with one
foot in corporate and one foot in consumer markets. Sometimes it put its
weight on one foot or the other, or put both feet on one side, and
sometimes it hopped around crossing left with right foot. You get the
analogy. Usually it was some insanely great product that the engineers
and designers cooked up that determined the footwork. The iPod continued
that tradition.
I think the Mac mini is different--it represents broad strategic
thinking. It's not only that the $499 (or $599) Mac mini has finally put
Apple into the competition at the low end of the personal computer
market, but what kind of box it is-emphasis on box. Its dimensions-- 6.5
inches by 6.5 inches by 2 inches and 2.9 lbs --make it a small box
indeed, one that fairly screams out component. The fact that it was
designed to accept USB mice or keyboards, or monitors of most kinds,
invites people to dump their Windows boxes and plug those peripherals
into the Mac mini. Or, use the Mac mini as the center of a distributed
home network system. Or function as the delivery system for the graphics
and video produced on the higher-end Macs. Or function in a home
entertainment system featuring Steve Jobs (Mr. Pixar) movies.
Along with the iPod Shuffle, Apple is embracing the commodity market
with gusto, or put another way, a lot of weight is shifting to the foot
in the consumer electronics business. So label this a shift toward
convergence. Nor does it necessarily diminish Apple's efforts at wooing
corporate sales. Apple is already pitching the Mac mini as a device for
automobiles. It doesn't take much imagination to envision Apple using
its creativity in software and hardware design as an edge to develop a
consumer electronics empire. Dare one accuse Steve Jobs of hubris and
does Sony hear footsteps?
It does not take much knowledge of history to see the irony of IBM
getting out of the commodity computer business and Apple wading into it
with both feet. We need to wait a while to see how significant for
Lenovo or Apple this is...or isn't. There is no compelling reason to be
confident either company can pull off their ambitions. On the other
hand, as representative of huge shifts in the manufacture, distribution,
and application of digital electronics (what used to be called the
computer industry), I think the significance is already apparent.