Some days I feel like one of those little lizards with
eyes that swivel independently, trying to keep an eyeball on all the
things I need to watch. Prioritizing helps; We all have our topics and
sensitivities. Changes in the Web/Internet are high on my list. To push
an analogy: The Web is to information as the atmosphere is to breathing.
But then I remind myself that some people dispute that our atmosphere is
changing, or if it is, how important that might be. So it may be with
the Web. In any case, here are three, let's call them Web-changing
trends that I'll follow this year: The privatization of the Web, Web
2.0, and Eastward Ho! the Web.
The private Web
Schemes to make money from the Internet are a dime a thousand,
but more appear all the time. During 2006, many of the largest U.S.
Internet carriers (mostly telcos and cable companies such as Verizon,
AT&T, and Comcast) will be pressuring Congress to re-write segments of
the Telecommunications Act of 1996. Some of the changes will set the
stage for these companies to charge content providers for the bandwidth
they use. They say this is only fair. They put up billions to lay fiber
optic cable, buy expensive network equipment, and develop complex
network software. Why should content and service providers such as
Google, Microsoft, and eBay get a free pass to chew up more and more
bandwidth without paying for it? For this to work there must be some way
of metering content providers, in effect their network packets will be
tagged and given priority if they pay.
What could this do? For
one thing, it will mean that some carriers will be charging both
providers and users, plus operating the means of transmission, in short,
a private network. We already have tiered access; depending on ability
to pay there is dial-up, DSL (in various speeds), satellite, Wi-Fi, and
cable. In general, faster costs more. If content providers can be
charged, some will participate, and they will have premium services.
Others will not participate; they will have lower priority with the
carriers. This could lead to a tiered content service. Between the
access and content tiers, the Internet could become Balkanized--pockets
of poverty and plenty--relative to cost and quality of service.
The move to revise the Telecommunications Act has opposition.
Companies such as Microsoft, Google, AOL, and eBay want the Internet
pipes left open. They know, however, the argument that they should share
in the cost of those pipes will have weight in Congress. Expect this
issue to flare during the year. It may fizzle in a happy compromise or
be the beginning of a restructuring of the Internet.
Web 2.0
Among the chattering cognoscenti (IT types
... all right, geeks like me) Web 2.0 was already a hot topic in 2005.
However, even among those who know about it, there is confusion over
what it means. For one thing, it's not an official phrase, title,
protocol, or standard. It is a name (originally coined by a conference)
given to a number of changes in the Web/Internet that are just
beginning. If there is a definitive
explanation of Web 2.0, you can read it in Tim O'Reilly's
"What is Web 2.0; Design Patterns and Business Models for the Next
Generation of Software." I'll briefly summarize the principles, which
apply to Web sites, services, and applications that are part of Web
2.0:
1. The Long Tail. Use customer self-service and
database knowledge to reach not only the core Web (at major sites) but
out to the edges of the Web where the bulk of the sites are
located.
2. Data is the Next Intel Inside. Most Web 2.0
applications are data-driven and feature a mastery of database
management.
3. Users Add Value. In what is called the
architecture of participation, Web 2.0 constantly looks for ways to get
user involvement. Users are co-developers.
4. Network Effects by
Default. Re. #3: Users don't normally get involved, so make sure there
the regular use of the application is attractive.
5. Some Rights
Reserved. Keep restrictions on use and re-use to a minimum.
6. The
Perpetual Beta. There are no software "releases," only constant
updates.
7. Cooperate, Don't Control. Build a network of
cooperating data sources. Harness collective intelligence.
8.
Software Above the Level of a Single Device. Simply put, software should
work on all kinds of devices, not just PCs.
Companies that
leverage these principles produce Web 2.0 applications. Google is most
often cited as a Web 2.0 company, often in contrast to Microsoft.
(Expect to see a lot about this in 2006.) At least in this definition of
Web 2.0, the essence is a continuation of the "commons" approach to the
Web--its strengths are its vast size, user choice, and participation.
There is a technical side to Web 2.0 (AJAX, lightweight interfaces),
which will be developing rapidly in 2006. At least as a concept, Web 2.0
will take shape this year, and is well worth watching.
Eastward Ho!
Like the Earth's magnetic
poles, the center of computer and Internet gravity is shifting.
Previously it moved around the U.S.; for example, it used to be Silicon
Valley. Then it was the United States as a whole. Now it's moving east.
One sign: For the first time in 2005 more PCs were sold in Europe than
the United States. Other places in the world have more Internet phones
per capita (Japan, Estonia). Not surprisingly, the number of users in
India and China will soon exceed the rest of the world combined (some
predict 2006 will be the year).
You can watch for signs of the
shift simply by surfing: How often do links land you in another
continent, especially Europe or Asia? Same for Web searches. However,
there is a caveat: The English language. India, and China will have an
enormous number of Web sites in the native languages, but these will
have little or no impact on global development of the web. The
international language is English and if you run a website with
aspiration for a global audience, then it must have an English
version--good English, at least as good as found in American or British
sites. This is a barrier, of course, and it will affect how rapidly the
center of gravity of the Web shifts east. Almost by definition, only the
globally connected leverage the strength of the Web (see Web 2.0 above),
and at least for the foreseeable future, that connection has to be in
English.
These Web trends--privatizing, Web 2.0, eastward
shift--will occur (or not) over a longer period of time than a year, but
2006 is a good year to pick up on them, at least out of the corner of
your eye--whichever one happens to be swiveling in that direction.
Nelson King writes Pursuits bimonthly for ComputerUser.
