NEW YORK April 23, 2012
44GW in 2011, every year beats the predictions, but it may not last…
There are other main trends at the macroscopic level:
European on-shore market is now close to maturity. EU countries are now starting to conquer and equip their off-shore potential.
South America Asia
Turbine architecture is changing, and converters with them. We aim at greater efficiency and reducing O&M (operating and maintenance) costs. Permanent magnets, no-gearbox and full converters seems to be the ideal combination, if material costs stay stable.
The next five years are still on high growth, thanks to the technology evolutions detailed in this report.
What conclusions to draw then? Now worries about wind turbine market’s future. Up to 2015, opportunities will be there, but facing more competition and technical challenges, it will be harder for new players to enter this market.
"Integration and modularity" trend is redesigning the supply-chain
Converters manufacturing and supply-chain is in the middle of a major evolution: modularity and integration. Rather than supplying one passive components, we expect to see more and more companies to merge with partners, and provide a pre-assembled stack, where only the power module would be missing. You can then easily design and maintain a converter using and replacing these "bricks". This type of assembly is more and more used in high power electronics. Companies such as Mersen, Methode electronics,… are positioning towards this new type of business model. This evolution is fully described in this report, highlighting the passive components, their importance in the converter, the future trends to come…
Chinese Players are now worldwide leaders!
This report includes a focus on the Chinese market, with local market and players split, as well as future market trends.
Moving From DFIG to Full converter has a Large impact on passives
The supply-chain is moving, and you will get the tools to understand this evolution in this report: With the integration trend, we will see more and more companies manufacturing or supplying several passives at a time, assembled together, to gain in added value. The components are to be pre-assembled in stacks, and the final integrator will choose the power switch.
According to most players, the capacitor market is not expecting a technical breakthrough, but footprint and integration skills will give advantage to the players who mastered it. The polypropylene film shortage is now over, and the market is not as tense as it used to be.
The resistor market is suffering from the move to full converter design. The design of grid fault protection systems requires less very high power resistors, and thus, the crowbar resistor market will diminish by 7% in the 2010-2017 period. DC link chopper is using the same technology and the move will fuel this 16% growth market.
Globally, technical evolutions have very high impact on passive components market. But these impacts, detailed in this report, are very different from one to the other.
Silicon carbide will come starting 2015: Meanwhile, power module improvements will be at packaging level
IGBT is the device best fitting the wind converters, either in power modules or stackpacks. Converter manufacturers are waiting for the availability of Si/SiC hybrid and full SiC modules. But when we look at today’s situation for 1200V discrete devices, the lack of reliability, and volume production at reasonable cost will make the wind market wait before SiC introduction, as explained in the roadmaps as well the semiconductor dies and materials market forecast of this report.
Packaging is evolving. Innovations are targeting all high power conversion markets, and they will bring better performance:
Infineon is bringing copper into the module, for die attach and connections
Semikron keep bringing silver into the modules, with sintering method.
First analysis from this report shows that copper is the next standard as it will be used by most players, even if Semikron’s sintering can target +30% market share.
KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT
Wind turbine’s global market trends
2011 Worldwide installations shares, and trends with 2017 market forecast
2010 Players position and forecasted evolution for 2011 and 2012
Wind converters market
Architecture analysis including:
DFIG vs. full converter, technical analysis and market forecast
On-shore vs. Off-shore comparison
Turbine size trend
Wind converters components
Converters architectures, players, market forecast and supply-chain analysis
Devices technology, markets and players:
IGBT and IGCT devices and stacks
Capacitors, resistors, connectors and laminated busbars
WHO SHOULD BUY THIS REPORT?
Wind converter manufacturers…
Understand the supply-chain evolution and the coming technologies
Make the right partnerships with the right companies, and gain a strategic advantage
Understand your new market and plan your business expansion
Power inverter manufacturers…
Understand the supply-chain evolution and anticipate on new technologies
Benchmark your company regarding the market evolutions
Elaborate the opportunities to penetrate or gain share in this high growth market
Power electronics players: material, equipment, device and module market players
Get the full picture and benchmark competitors and partners solutions
Understand the value-chain and anticipate its evolutions
Make the right decisions and position yourself in tough market
COMPANY CITED IN THE REPORT
Table of Contents
How is this report structured p.6
Executive summary p.9
Wind turbine market p.37
Split by country, Maturity analysis, Yearly installed forecast, Total installed capacity forecast, Focus on Chinese market
Market shares, 2011 & 2012 market shares estimation, Focus on Chinese players
Trends in wind turbine installation and size
Wind turbine converter p.64
Architectures, Technology diagram, Low voltage vs. medium voltage, DFIG vs. Full converter, Cost breakdowns, Wind converter market forecasts
Wind converter components p.99
Stacks, modules and devices markets
Power modules market shares
Power module forecasts
Power modules technology
IGBT stacks, IGBT and IGCT, SiC roadmap
Presspack, Flat module, Improvement aspects examples in packaging
Passive components p.145
Players, supply-chain and market analysis
Appendix: Company presentation p.218
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