Washington, DC, November 19, 2020 –(PR.com)– Pramod Kunju, the CEO of data, analytics and AI company Nakunj, provides his analysis of the data behind the 2020 US Presidential Elections, as described below.
The United States Presidential Elections of 2020 had most polls predicting Joe Biden to be the clear winner. However, the election turned out to be a much closer affair. How does one explain this? Once you go through all the analysis, two things stand out:
1) The power of incumbency was not factored into the polls. There is no excuse for this, since the previous two instances of incumbents winning their re-election campaigns (President Bush in 2004 and President Obama in 2012) provide enough evidence for this. If the polling is merely based on what prospective voters tell the pollsters, the incumbency factor will continue to be ignored, resulting in skewed polls.
2) The second factor that may have been a relatively new one in 2020 is how a portion of the Republicans chose to vote. It is clear from analysis of many Republican leaning counties that a portion of their electorate chose a Republican candidate for the Senate and Congress, while voting for Joe Biden as President. This is something the pollsters probably had a tough time determining if they linked the Senate/Congress races to the Presidential race, as was indeed the case in the 2016 election.
So, President Trump was buoyed by the incumbency factor, while being held down by the Republican voters who broke for Joe Biden. The incumbency advantage could have been good enough to negate the poll numbers and deliver a win for President Trump if, and only if, Republicans voted along party lines on the Presidential ballot as well.
This rationale clearly explains why Republicans have retained the Senate control (pending runoffs) and have expanded their majority in the Congress, while losing the Presidency.
Pramod Kunju says, “The headline should really be: ‘Republican voters pick Joe Biden for President.’ Ironic, but true.”
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